A look ahead to 2040
As we experience further changes across technology, the climate, the economy, politics and society, what else might we encounter that could change how work affects our health, safety or wellbeing?
That was the question an Institute for Work & Health (IWH) research team asked 18 occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals from Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Spain as well as selected policy makers and researchers. Led by Dr. Arif Jetha, IWH associate scientific director, this project aimed to get a sense of the big picture that we might face in the next 15 years.
Seven potential scenarios
While not predictive or exhaustive, the following scenarios highlight key questions for practitioners, policy-makers and researchers to consider and lean into for successful mitigation:
1) Eroding trust in institutions
Public confidence in institutions, experts and traditional health systems is eroding. Instead, authority is shifting toward influencers and media personalities who share one’s personal values. This is creating new challenges for how health and safety messages are received.
Key question for OHS professionals: What new occupational health and safety-focused strategies are needed to counter misinformation and communicate effectively?
2) Longer lifespans and differences across generations
Populations are aging, and people are living longer and retiring later, changing the makeup of the workforce. Social generations (e.g., Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z and Gen Alpha) have different exposures to technology and cultural changes, which can mean different expectations for work in the future.
Key question for OHS professionals: How can organizations redesign work, benefits, and career pathways to support an extended working life, while ensuring productivity, equity, safety, and worker wellbeing across all generations?
3) Intensified climate impacts
The accelerating climate crisis is exposing workers to new physical risks and increasing fears about the future. Some industries are being reshaped as expectations grow for legal and ethical accountability for climate-resilient approaches to safety and wellbeing.
Key question for OHS professionals: How can employers adapt indoor and outdoor work environments to the greater needs associated with climate events?
4) AI as a co-worker
As AI becomes more widespread, workplaces are redefining and reshaping jobs. There is a sense of urgency to address questions about health, safety, wellbeing, equity, justice, job security, job demands and what it means to be human at work.
Key question for OHS professionals: What labour standards, organizational policies, and upskilling approaches are needed to equitably support workers—including those from marginalized groups—in adapting to AI-driven change?
5) Rising isolation
Growing social disconnection, declining mental health, and rising polarization across society are reshaping how workers relate to one another and to institutions. This has made inclusion, resilience, and belonging critical priorities for many in the future of work and health, while spawning resistance from others.
Key question for OHS professionals: How can workplaces foster meaningful social connection and reduce loneliness among workers in remote, hybrid, and individualized work environments?
6) Growing global and social tensions
Rising political tensions, global conflict and cyber threats are extending warfare into economic, digital and environmental realms. This has the potential to create volatility that can directly affect worker safety, wellbeing and trust in institutions.
Key question for OHS professionals: What are the OHS implications of cyberattacks and digital disruptions that impact workplace safety?
7) Precarious work becoming more common
Historically, rising costs, unstable jobs and strained public services accompany periods of economic, social and technological change. As the world shifts, this type of precariousness—including housing or food insecurity—will continue to be a defining challenge for workers, employers and health systems.
Key question for OHS professionals: What role do workplaces have in recognizing the other social determinants of health and supporting employees through chronic financial stress, housing insecurity, or food instability?
Planning ahead for an uncertain future
The report’s authors identify the challenges related to horizon scanning and planning against a backdrop of major shifts playing out in the social and political arenas and suggest that identifying these possible drivers of future change at least provides a foundation for proactive planning.
For full descriptions and sources informing each of the seven future scenarios, as well as the full list of key questions to consider, access the report at: https://www.iwh.on.ca/sites/iwh/files/iwh/reports/iwh_report_futures_work_health_2040.pdf
Image: Institute for Work & Health
